Vol. 5 No. 2 (2017): BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT STUDIES: AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
Articles

THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC DEFICIT AND DEBTS: SAMPLE OF TURKEY

Selim YILDIRIM
Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisat Bölümü
Fatih TEMİZEL
Anadolu Üniversitesi İİBF İŞLETME BÖLÜMÜ
Ethem ESEN
Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisat Bölümü
Sultan Fatih KOSTAKOĞLU
Anadolu Üniversitesi Açıköğretim Fakültesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Programlar Bölümü
Mehmet DİNÇ
Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü

Published 2017-09-16

How to Cite

YILDIRIM, S., TEMİZEL, F., ESEN, E., KOSTAKOĞLU, S. F., & DİNÇ, M. (2017). THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC DEFICIT AND DEBTS: SAMPLE OF TURKEY. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 5(2), 209–222. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v5i2.136

Abstract

The developing countries which include Turkey as well, has been adversely effected in terms of sustainability of fiscal policy due to the 2001 crisis and the global crisis in 2008. These developments, which are important for the sustainability of fiscal policy, have increased the interest of researchers in the subject. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine whether Turkey's fiscal policy is sustainable for the period 1976-2016. In this study, which examines the sustainability of public debts in Turkey during the period 1976-2016, Bohn (1989) based econometric model with time-varying parameters was estimated by considering the structural changes experienced by the Turkish economy. In this model, the basic relationship is between the dependent variable ration of primary surplus to GDP (fdoranı) and the explanatory variable of ration of public debt to GDP kboran. This relationship was empirically positive and statistically significant. This result provides evidence that public debt is sustainable when Turkey's budget policy is assessed for the period covered.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

  1. Ahmed, S., & Rogers, J. H. (1995). Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36(2), 351-374.
  2. Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E., & Özmucur, S. (2001). Budget deficit, inflation and debt sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970-2000). Bogazici University Institute of Social Sciences Working Paper ISS/EC, 12.
  3. Arısoy, İ., & Ünlükaplan, İ. (2010). Türkiye’de Mali Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği ile Kamu Gelirleri ve Harcamaları İlişkisinin Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 444-462.
  4. Bohn, H. (1998). The behavior of US public debt and deficits. the Quarterly Journal of economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  5. Bohn, H. (2005). The sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States, Cesifo Working paper No.1446.
  6. Bravo, A. B. S., & Silvestre, A. L. (2002). Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 18(3), 517-528.
  7. Burnside, C. (2005). Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice: a handbook (Vol. 396). World Bank Publications.
  8. Burret, H. T., Feld, L. P., & Köhler, E. A. (2013). Sustainability of Public Debt in Germany–Historical Considerations and Time Series Evidence. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 233(3), 291-335.
  9. Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., & Tamarit, C. (2013). The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in OECD countries, Research Institute of Applied Economics, Working paper, (No. 2013/10).
  10. Ceylan, R. (2010). Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirlik Göstergeleri İstikrarlı mı?. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 388-397.
  11. Collignon, S., & Mundschenk, S. (1999). The sustainability of public debt in Europe. Economia internazionale, 52, 101-160.
  12. Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L. A., & de Gracia, F. P. (2004). Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach. Journal of Economics and Business, 56(6), 501-526.
  13. Dayaratna-Banda, O. G., & Priyadarshanee, A. A. S. (2014). Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 4(7), 100-108.
  14. Deyshappriya, N. R. (2012). Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 2(3), 1-8.
  15. Doi, T., Hoshi, T., & Okimoto, T. (2011). Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy. Journal of the Japanese and international economies, 25(4), 414-433.
  16. Ehrhart, C., & Llorca, M. (2008). The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries. Applied Economics Letters, 15(10), 797-803.
  17. Friedman S. & Stuetzle W. (1981) Projection Pursuit Regression. Journal of American Statistics Association, 76, 817-823.
  18. Fincke B. & Greiner A. (2011) Debt Sustainability in Selected Euro Area Countries: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Paramaeters. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 15(3), article 2.
  19. Göçer, İ. (2013). Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Panel Eş–Bütünleşme Analizi. Journal of Yaşar University, 8(30), 5086-5104.
  20. Göktaş, Ö. (2008). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bütçe Açığının Sürdürülebilirliğinin Analizi. Ekonometri ve İstatistik e-Dergisi, (8), 45-64.
  21. Green, C. J., Holmes, M. J., & Kowalski, T. (2001). Poland: a successful transition to budget sustainability?. Emerging markets review, 2(2), 161-183.
  22. Greiner, A., & Kauermann, G. (2007). Sustainability of US public debt: Estimating smoothing spline regressions. Economic Modelling, 24(2), 350-364.
  23. Greiner, A., Koeller, U., & Semmler, W. (2007). Debt sustainability in the European Monetary Union: Theory and empirical evidence for selected countries. Oxford Economic Papers, 59(2), 194-218.
  24. Hamilton, J.D. and M.A. Flavin (1986). On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing. The American Economics Review, 4, 808-819.
  25. Hastie T. (1984) Discussion of Graphical methods for assessing logistic regression models, by J. M. Landwehr, D. Pregibon, and A. C. Shoemaker. Journal of American Statistical Association, 79, 77-78.
  26. Hastie T. & Tibshirani R. (1986) Generalized Additive Models. Statistical Sciece, 3(1), 297-31.
  27. Hatemi-J, A. (2002). Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence. Economic Modelling, 19(1), 121-136.
  28. Issler, J. V., & Lima, L. R. (2000). Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947–1992. Journal of Development Economics, 62(1), 131-147.
  29. Kuştepeli, Y., & Önel, G. (2005). Fiscal deficit sustainability with a structural break: An application to Turkey. Eastern Mediterranean University, Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, 5-6, 189-208.
  30. Lima, L. R., Gaglianone, W. P., & Sampaio, R. M. (2008). Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach. Journal of Development Economics, 86(2), 313-335.
  31. Makrydakis, S., Tzavalis, E., & Balfoussias, A. (1999). Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece. Economic Modelling, 16(1), 71-86.
  32. Maliye Bakanlığı (2015). 2015 Yılı Genel Faaliyet Raporu.
  33. Mercan, M. (2013). Zamanlararası Dış Denge Kısıtı Yaklaşımı Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(3), 91-110.
  34. Narayana, M. R. (2014). Impact of population ageing on sustainability of India’s current fiscal policies: A Generational Accounting approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 3, 71-83.
  35. Neaime, S. (2015). Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(1), 1-21.
  36. Nelder J.A. & Wedderburn R.W.M. (1972) Generalized Linear Modes. Journal of Royal Society of Statistics Series A,135, 370-384
  37. Önel, G., & Utkulu, U. (2006). Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes. Economic Modelling, 23(4), 669-682.
  38. Özatay, F. (1997). Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(6), 661-681.
  39. Özkaya, A. (2013). Public Debt Stock Sustainability in Selected OECD Countries. Central Bank Review, 13(1), 31.
  40. Payne, J. E. (1997). International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits. Applied Economics Letters, 4(12), 775-779.
  41. Payne, J. E., Mohammadi, H., & Cak, M. (2008). Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus. Applied Economics, 40(7), 823-830.
  42. Peker, O., & Göçer, İ. (2012). Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İİBF, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 19(1), 163-178.
  43. Pradhan, K. (2014). Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 3(2), 241-266.
  44. Prohl, S., & Schneider, F. G. (2006). Sustainability of public debt and budget deficit: Panel Cointegration analysis for the European Union member countries (No. 0610). Working Paper, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz.
  45. Qin, D., Cagas, M. A., Ducanes, G., Magtibay-Ramos, N., & Quising, P. (2006). Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(1), 63-84.
  46. Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ., & Keskin, A. (2010). Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Analizi: 1975-2007. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 103-123.
  47. Tanner, E., & Samake, I. (2008). Probabilistic sustainability of public debt: a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. IMF Staff Papers, 55(1), 149-182.
  48. Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1988). Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 425-444.
  49. Wilcox, D. W. (1989). The sustainability of government deficits: Implications of the present-value borrowing constraint. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 21(3), 291-306.
  50. Yıldırım, K., & Özcan, S. E. (2015). Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: 1970–2005 Türkiye Örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 30(30).