Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Articles

Macroeconomic determinants of sovereign debt default: Evidence from emerging market economies

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  • Tayfun Moğol,
  • Burak Pirdal
Tayfun Moğol
Assist. Prof. Dr., Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Türkiye
Bio
Burak Pirdal
Res. Assist., Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Türkiye
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v12i2.2391

Published 2024-06-25

Keywords

  • Devlet Borçları, Devlet Borç Temerrüdü, İkili Tercih Panel Probit Model
  • Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Debt Default, Binary Choice Panel Probit Model

How to Cite

Moğol, T., & Pirdal, B. (2024). Macroeconomic determinants of sovereign debt default: Evidence from emerging market economies. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 12(2), 384–397. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v12i2.2391

Copyright (c) 2024 Tayfun Moğol- Burak Pirdal

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Abstract

In this study, the macroeconomic determinants of sovereign debt defaults are investigated. The Binary Choice Panel Probit Model is used, and the empirical analysis focuses on emerging market economies. Annual data is used in the econometric analysis, covering the period from 1994 to 2022. The findings indicate a statistically significant and positive relationship between the risk of sovereign debt default and the current account balance, U.S. interest rates, and the external debt stock. On the other hand, the relationship between GDP per capita growth rate and foreign direct investments with the risk of sovereign default is statistically significant and negative.

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