Economic growth in the context of exports, human development, gross capital formation, and CO₂ emissions: EAGLE and NEST economies

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the long-run relationships between real income per capita and human development, CO₂ emissions, exports, and gross capital formation in selected EAGLE and NEST economies. The study uses a panel dataset covering the 1990–2023 period for 12 economies: India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Türkiye, Egypt, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Africa, Colombia, and Thailand. The Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) methods, which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries, are employed in the analysis. The findings indicate positive and statistically significant long-run relationships at the panel level between human development, per capita CO₂ emissions, exports, gross capital formation, and real income per capita. However, the country-specific AMG results reveal that the direction and magnitude of these relationships may differ across economies. The negative and statistically significant error-correction coefficient of the CS-ARDL model indicates an adjustment process toward the long-run equilibrium, while its absolute value greater than 1 suggests that this adjustment may exhibit an oscillatory pattern. Overall, the findings point to the importance of jointly evaluating the relationships between real income per capita and human development, foreign trade, capital accumulation, and environmental indicators.