İsrail-Hamas savaşının Orta Doğu borsalarına etkisinin olay çalışması metodolojisi ile incelenmesi
Yayınlanmış 25.03.2024
Anahtar Kelimeler
- İsrail- Hamas Savaşı, Uluslararası Finans, Borsa, Olay Analizi
- Israel-Hamas War, International Finance, Stock Market, Event Analysis
Nasıl Atıf Yapılır
Telif Hakkı (c) 2024 Serkan Demirel
Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.
Nasıl Atıf Yapılır
Öz
7 Ekim 2024’te başlayan İsrail-Hamas savaşının Orta Doğu ülkelerinin borsalarına etkisini inceleyen bu çalışma, toplamda 11 borsayı kapsamaktadır. Bu borsaların gösterge endeksleri tespit edilerek çalışmanın veri seti toplanmıştır. Veri seti 6 Şubat 2023-6 Kasım 2023 arası toplam 191 günlük gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Borsaların kapalı olduğu özel günler ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösterebileceğinden günlük veriler birbirlerine uyumlandırılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen veriler olay çalışması tekniği ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular şu şekildedir: Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, İsrail, Suudi Arabistan ve Kuveyt borsalarına ait CAR’lerin incelenen tüm olay pencerelerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı oldukları görülmektedir. Bu ülke borsalarının gösterge endeksleri tüm olay pencerelerinde beklendiği şekilde yatırımcılar için negatif getiri sağlamıştır. Ürdün, Bahreyn ve Lübnan borsalarına ait CAR’lerin olay pencerelerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Ancak anlamlılık içeren pencerelerde Ürdün borsa endeksi için pozitif CAR’ler gözlemlenmiştir. İlgili olay pencerelerinde, olay tarihinden önceki kazançların olay tarihinden sonraki kayıplardan fazla oluşu pozitif CAR’leri ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bahreyn borsasında ise olay pencerelerinde pozitif CAR’ler meydana gelmiştir. Olay penceresinde ise olay tarihinden sonraki kayıplar önceki kazançlardan fazla olmuştur. Lübnan borsasında beklenildiği üzere savaşın negatif etkileri gözlenmiştir. Filistin gösterge endeksi için olay pencerelerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı CAR’ler meydana gelmiştir. Benzer şekilde, Katar gösterge endeksi için olay pencerelerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı CAR’ler oluşmuştur. Her iki ülke borsası için olay tarihi çevresinde yatırımcıların kayıplar yaşadığı söylenebilir. Umman borsasında ise olay tarihine en yakın olay pencerelerinde pozitif CAR’ler gözlemlenmiş ancak olay penceresi genişledikçe negatif CAR’ler ortaya çıkmıştır. Tam tersi bir gözlem ise Mısır için mümkündür. Olay penceresi genişledikçe CAR’lerin pozitif olduğu lakin daraldıkça CAR’lerin negatif olduğu gözlenmiştir.
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