Cilt 10 Sayı 1 (2022): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Makaleler

İstanbul Boğazı’ndaki gemi trafiğinin bölge ülkelerinin ekonomik büyümeleri aracılığıyla tahmin edilmesi

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  • Abdullah Açık,
  • Can Atacan
Abdullah Açık
Doç. Dr., Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Denizcilik Fakültesi, Buca, İzmir, Türkiye
Can Atacan
Okutman, Ege Üniversitesi, Urla Denizcilik M.Y.O., Urla, İzmir, Türkiye

Yayınlanmış 26.03.2022

Anahtar Kelimeler

  • Boğaz, Geçiş, İstanbul, Ekonomik Büyüme
  • Strait, Passage, Istanbul, Economic Growth

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

İstanbul Boğazı’ndaki gemi trafiğinin bölge ülkelerinin ekonomik büyümeleri aracılığıyla tahmin edilmesi. (2022). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 10(1), 99-119. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v10i1.1940

Telif Hakkı (c) 2022 Abdullah Açık- Can Atacan

Creative Commons License

Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

İstanbul Boğazı’ndaki gemi trafiğinin bölge ülkelerinin ekonomik büyümeleri aracılığıyla tahmin edilmesi. (2022). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 10(1), 99-119. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v10i1.1940

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, İstanbul Boğazı'ndan geçen gemi miktarının gelecekteki seyrini tahmin etmektir. Bu doğrultuda, dünya ekonomisinin deniz taşımacılığına olan talepteki en büyük etken olduğu düşünülerek, Karadeniz devletlerinin GSYİH'leri ve ticaret hacimleri ile gemi trafiği arasındaki ilişki regresyon analizi kullanılarak iki ayrı modelde analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmaya dahil edilen ülkeler Bulgaristan, Gürcistan, Romanya, Rusya, Türkiye ve Ukrayna’dır. Daha sonra IMF'nin ilgili ülkeler için yayınladığı büyüme tahminleri dikkate alınarak 2026 yılında 2020 yılına göre trafikte ne kadar artış olacağı hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen katsayılar göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, boğazdan geçen gemi miktarı 2026 yılında GDP modeline göre %20,2, ticaret hacmi modeline göre ise %28,8 artış gösterecektir. Bu sonuçlar, boğazdaki artışı düzenlemek için geliştirilen strateji ve projelerin önemini ve gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

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