Vol. 10 No. 1 (2022): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Articles

Estimating the ship traffic in the Istanbul Strait through economic growth of region countries

Abdullah Açık
Assoc. Prof. Dr., Dokuz Eylül University, Maritime Faculty, Department of Maritime Business Administration, Buca, İzmir, Turkey
Can Atacan
Lect., Ege University, Urla Maritime Vocational School, Urla, İzmir, Turkey

Published 2022-03-26

Keywords

  • Boğaz, Geçiş, İstanbul, Ekonomik Büyüme
  • Strait, Passage, Istanbul, Economic Growth

How to Cite

Açık, A., & Atacan, C. (2022). Estimating the ship traffic in the Istanbul Strait through economic growth of region countries. Business &Amp; Management Studies: An International Journal, 10(1), 99–119. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v10i1.1940

Abstract

The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In this direction, considering that the world economy is the biggest factor in the demand for maritime transport, the relationship between the GDPs and trade volumes of the Black Sea states, and ship traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic.

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